Code-19 model for flu outbreak may not work: study

Code-19 model for flu outbreak may not work: study

NEW YORK: A mathematical model that could help predict the spread of infectious diseases such as seasonal flu may not be the best way to predict the spread of Covid 19, researchers say, including those of Indian descent.
The model predicts the average number of susceptible people who will be infected by an infectious person.
It is calculated using three main factors. The infectious period of the disease, how the disease is spread and how many people the infected person will come in contact with.
Historically, if the RNT is larger than one, infections can increase significantly and there is a risk of epidemics or more epidemics.
The initial order for the Cove-19 epidemic was between two and three. In a letter published in the journal Infection Control and Hospital Epidemiology, the researchers argued that the lockdowns that have become necessary to help reduce COVD-19 epidemics have altered the normal mix of the population. Predicting the spread of the disease is complicated.
Ernie Rao, a mathematician at Georgia Medical College at Augusta University in the United States, and her co-authors suggested using a dynamic, moment-to-moment model called a geometric mean instead. ۔
That model uses today’s numbers to predict tomorrow’s numbers. For example, the current number of infections in August is divided by the number of infections expected for tomorrow, more accurately and the development of the current reproductive rate.
Researchers say that although this geometric method cannot predict long-term trends, it can more accurately predict possible numbers for the short term.
Explaining, Rao said, “The R-NONT model cannot be converted into an account for contact rates which may change day by day after the lockdown.”
“In the early days of the epidemic, we relied on traditional methods to predict the spread, but lockdowns change the way people interact with each other.”
A uniform RNAT is also not possible because the Covid 19 epidemic is widely varied in different parts of the country and the world.
Locations have different rates of infection on different timelines. Hotspots like New York and California have a high number of miscreants. R. Nunn also did not predict the current third wave of the Code 19 epidemic.
“Different factors constantly change the basic groundwater reproductive numbers, which is why we need a better model,” says Rao.
The authors say that there are implications for a better model for reducing the prevalence of Covid-19 and planning for the future.

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