J.Biden’s big idea – the US-led global coalition of liberal democracies was against dictatorial regimes and “powerful” leaders. His proposed “united front” is great and good, mainly to compete with China and Russia. However, it could also revolt against Western allies such as India, Turkey and Poland. For this and other reasons, it seems destined to fail.
Biden promised to hold a “campaign” during this year’s campaignSummit for DemocracyIn 2021, “to renew the spirit of the free world and the common goal.” It aims to “strengthen our democratic institutions, honestly confront the United Nations, which is retreating, and create a common agenda,” he said. It was needed because, in part, Donald Trump said, “the international system that the United States has carefully built is deviating from maritime boundaries.”
This is a commendable wish. Recent years have seen significant growth of oppressive, especially right-wing governments that disregard international law and violate UN-defined international rights, including democratic rights. But how will Biden decide who is eligible for his alliance? Dictatorship is clearly unpopular with the criminal regimes of North Korea and Syria. Yet irrational Thailand, Venezuela and Iran are all considered to be democracies. Will they receive a summit invitation?
Diplomatic staff are already predicting that Biden’s grand alliance will end with the revival of the G7 group of leading Western economies in the United States, Canada, Germany, France, Italy, the United Kingdom and Japan. One hill is to include India, Australia and South Korea – an imaginary “D-10”. But they are straightforward Forms another elite club From which many real or aspiring democracies were excluded.
Part of the problem is Biden himself. Terms like “free world” are old, reminiscent of their early years during the Cold War. His clear statement of the jar of American moral superiority with recent experience. “We have to prove that; America is ready to lead once again, not only with the example of our strength, but also with the strength of our example. This is the old diet. Yet the music has changed, and So are singers.
China is not a threat to global security as the Soviet Union once did. The main challenge before it is precise, concise and multifaceted, that is, technical, ideological, commercial, anti-democratic. The idea that a cowardly world is relying on the United States to come to the rescue. The age of solo superpowers is over. A polar moment is lost. The power balance was already there The change in Trump has eroded confidence.
Weak, divided Europe may be an exception to Biden’s move. “We need to step up our efforts to defend democracy,” said Joseph Borrell, the EU’s foreign affairs chief, while highlighting recent trends. VD Institute’s Democracy Report 2020. It emphasizes that for the first time since 2001, autonomy is the world’s foremost form of government – in 92 countries, home to 54% of the world’s population.
Britain’s international standing is now so weak that it will support almost everything on Biden’s advice. Germany will also support the move, as long as it does not jeopardize its lucrative Chinese exports. Hungary and Poland are in trouble. The Polish government’s neglect of judicial freedom and abortion rights has failed miserably with a campaign to promote liberal values. According to VD, Victor Orbبنn’s Hungary is no longer a democracy but an “electoral dictatorship.”
Looking further, Biden’s drive for democracy can be like trying to herd cats with so many claws and spit. India is an important issue. It calls itself the largest democracy in the world. Yet under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, it has become one of the biggest violators of political opponents, independent media, NGOs like Amnesty International, and the persecutors of millions of Muslims. Modi has nothing to say about democracy, except how to spoil it.
Strictly, Biden should add Taiwan, A model of East Asian democracy, on our guest list. Doing so would make China very angry, so it probably won’t. Aspiring thinking can be established, including in Sudan and Afghanistan, which are fighting for a republic. On the contrary, the abolition of Turkey, Peru, the Philippines, Uganda and other flawed democracies would otherwise annoy friendly governments.
The point here is that Biden, like all his predecessors, will eventually have to deal with the world as he does not want to. As demonstrated by Barack Obama in 2009 Great speech in Cairo It feels good to have a new beginning in the Arab world, but in the end it has very few signs. When the Arab Spring broke, the United States supported the bad guys – in the case of Egypt, dictator Abdel Fattah al-Sisi – because it was in line with its geopolitical interests.
China and Russia, and other undemocratic measures such as Saudi Arabia, will rely on rediscovered realism to make Biden’s plan a reality, even if it sticks to old-school American rhetoric about values and rights. Only when he and his allies make a meaningful effort to actively defend Hong Kong’s fragmented freedoms will Beijing feel the need to back down.
According to Eritrea, or, say, Belarus, China can do a lot if the pro-democracy tub-thumping process in Washington becomes unbearable. On issues such as epidemics and the climate crisis, Beijing’s involvement is inevitable, and Biden knows it. Economic, diplomatic and political gain can be used in every way to relieve American pressure. The most outrageous suggestion, recently made by Vladimir Putin, was that Russia and China could Establish anti-Western military alliances, Possibly drawing on lesser powers such as North Korea.
It probably won’t happen. But it is only possible that Biden’s reasonable but polarizing “alliance of democracies” will deepen divisions and inadvertently create a new “axis of evil.” Unlike most original ones, this one would be really cool.
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