500 cases to 57 lakhs. Scientists say that six months after the nationwide lockout, Kovid-19 is doing more testing and development on the vaccine front with the length and breadth of India, but there is no clarity on when the disease will be controlled.
On March 24, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a 21-day lockout for the entire country, citing the only way to break the chain of infection. At that time, the number of people infected with SARS-CoV-2 virus was slightly more than 500 and the number of deaths was 12.
Six months later, India has the second highest number of cases in the world, with 57.32 lakh cases in the US, 86,508 people testing positive in a day and a total of 91,149 deaths, according to data from the Union Health Ministry.
As COVID-19 – and even LePerson gets relatively cheap but not so reliable rapid antigen testing with the complexities of RT-PCR tests – US-based economist and epidemiologist Ramnayan Lakshminarayan said A “hidden epidemic” is also occurring, the epidemic spreads.
He said that the infection is spreading widely in all parts of the country, including rural India, although visibility is low in places where testing is weak or insufficient.
“We will see the possibility of some increase in states like UP and Bihar, but only if the RT-PCR test increases. We have a hidden epidemic in many parts of the country right now, which weakens health systems, ”the director of the Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics and Policy in Washington told PTI.
Laxminarayan said, “While the infection is spreading slowly, if people are not taking precautions, it is definitely not under control.”
However, he expects the number of cases to start decreasing in the next month or two, as India stands for some measure of “population immunity”. Since substantial numbers of the population are infected and recover from the disease, they are unlikely to spread the virus.
“In view of the precautions taken by both the government and individuals, the epidemic has slowed down. This will mean that we will see a stable plateau for some time before matters begin to subside, ”said Laxminarayan.
The lockout was announced by the Prime Minister a day earlier on 23 March and India tested 18,383 samples two days before its implementation. As of 22 September, it had gone to at least 6,62,79,462 trials in both RT-PCR and rapid antigens.
This recovery has reached more than 46 lakh people, bringing the national recovery rate to 81.55 percent. Immunologist Satyajit Rath cautiously noted that India is still in the stage of spreading viral infections in communities.
With global, international travel from the Rath, National Institute, as a point of origin, the transition was first established in urban high-density areas, and is now spreading to the rest of the country. Immunology (NII) in New Delhi told PTI.
He said that the infection has never really been under control in India.
“Prolonged harsh lockout caused some delays in the large-scale installation of the infection. But ‘control’ has never been a possibility. So we are definitely seeing an increase in the number of infections over a long period of time.
Immunologist Vinita Bal said with Rath, the Indian government had not learned much despite experiences from other parts of the world and announced a prolonged “Draconian lockdown”.
“The country lacked leadership and poor people could not realize the ground reality; Or maybe not bothered, ”Bal of the Indian Institute of Science, Education and Research in Pune told PTI.
“Due to a lack of public health infrastructure for decades, our preparedness to deal with the epidemic was very poor. He said that the only justification could be to implement the lockdown.
Lakshminarayan took a different approach. He said there were several positives about the control strategy, including early identification of the threat facing India and an early lockdown, although implementation and planning could have been much better.
“The lack of initial testing really cost the country. With better and more extended testing than before, India was fully capable, the lockout could be more targeted rather than being countrywide.
“Since then, there has been much confusion over scientific communication, including the possibility of a vaccine and the utility of hydrochloroquine. The performances in various states have been very diverse depending on the capacity of their health system, ”he said.
Rath said the initial harsh lockdown caused more problems than it solved.
“This somewhat delayed the mass installation of the transition, but it did that at a huge cost to the already fragile livelihood, economy, and disruption of health systems,” he explained.
Bal also said that India has long been neglecting the healthcare infrastructure that should be accessible to the poor and the needy.
“In the last six months, serious efforts have been made to upgrade the infrastructure, but still not enough,” he said.
Discussing the vaccine, which is expected to have billions of people globally, experts said that there are around 200 efforts worldwide to build and test candidates. A large number, growing by the week, is in clinical trials of actual efficacy.
In India, at least eight vaccine candidates are being developed, of which two have entered Phase 2 trials or the stage of admission.
“In all likelihood, many vaccines will emerge. Alternatively, the first vaccines will probably be licensed by the end of this calendar year, ”said Rath.
“Further, first generation vaccines are likely to provide significant but not complete protection, and it is unclear how long the protection will last and how booster vaccination will work”.
Lakshminarayan, an associate professor at the University of Washington, also said that it is too early to know if any of the vaccine candidates under development in India will play a major role in Kovid-19 control in the country. “However, one should expect that,” he said.
“This is the best disease in my history to the best of my knowledge, where the candidate’s vaccine testing starts less than eight to nine months after the virus is identified and its sequence published. This is a major technological achievement, ”said Bal.
The expert said that epidemics are unlikely to occur in India in the coming months, and the number of infected people will continue to increase.
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