The UK should take advantage of the US growth forecast – but don’t bank on it Business

Big stimulus programs can have major economic implications. This insight is hardly revealing, but nonetheless, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) President Biden’s 1.9tn package of tax cuts and spending promises to look at its models and predict surprisingly different growth. Surprised.

In the United States, the OECD expected a 3.2% increase this year, a steady return to 2020. Now, according to the “American Rescue Plan”, it has forecast 6.5%, which will be the strongest annual expansion this year. America in decades

The UK should enjoy the spillover effect, which, combined with the rapid vaccine distribution program, will mean 5.1 per cent growth this year, far more complete than the December forecast. For 2022, 7. pen has been rewritten, a significant increase from the previous forecast of 4.1 …

In fact, there is great uncertainty surrounding the predictions. OECD economists have no better insight into how the virus will change. He assumes the vaccines will work. Nor can they be aware of the degree to which lockdown users turn consumers over when given the opportunity.

The other major uncertainty is inflation, which has been a financial market frenzy since Biden’s election. Is the 9 1.9tn program, or 8.5% heavier than US GDP, too much for an economy entering recovery mode anyway? On this score, the OECD offered reassurance: The US labor market is quite slow, so any pressure to raise prices should be temporary.

Strong growth with very little risk of inflation seems very good, which is why policymakers at the Bank of England should maintain their “open all options” position for some time to come. But we can probably say this: the idea of ​​a negative interest rate can be tampered with. If, according to the OECD, it is credible that the UK economy can grow at an annual rate of 5.1% and then 4.7%, the next change in interest rates is likely to increase significantly.

Mike Ashley has to explain the zero hour switch on the Evans cycle

Overview of the Evans Bicycle Store in Vauxhall Bridge Road, London.

Evans is on the rise during the epidemic, yet Mike Ashley is cutting jobs and hiring the rest of the staff on zero-hour contracts. Photograph: Philip Tuscano / PA

Mike Ashley had a great time when his freezers group bought an Evans bicycle out of management in 2018. The epidemic has accelerated cycling and Evans will enjoy the same bumper trading conditions reported by Harvard.

In a strong sense, Ashley’s plan to cut 300 jobs is strange. Even the stranger has a clear demand that the rest of the store staff switch to zero-hour contracts. Didn’t Ashley promise to make such deals after an encounter with MPs on how to work at Sports Direct? It did – but it never really happened.

It would be a good moment for MPs to look at this issue again, as epidemics have provided employers with the perfect cover to reduce conditions. And if Ashley thinks her point of view at Evans isn’t an opportunistic one, she’ll be happy to explain it.

Karen Energy and India are coming to an end

Karen Energy’s tax dispute with the Indian government should have ended a year ago, in 2014. And the resolution was to be passed last December, when the Edinburgh-based oil and gas explorer was honored. N 1.2bn through an international arbitration tribunal, plus interest and expenses. India was found to have violated its obligations under the UK-India Bilateral Investment Treaty.

Yet the controversy, over a past request for tax changes on Karen’s former assets in India, is coming to an end. Not a single dollar has been received from Delhi so far, Canon said on Tuesday, adding that it had identified Indian sovereign assets abroad that could be seized if necessary. Alternative tactics could include “making money,” meaning debt sellers, who have gone up to 1. 1.7 billion in corporate debt equivalents.

Any option would increase drastically, so Karen insisted that it was also “engaged” directly with the Indian government. But, since b 1.7bn is a hell of money for a company worth bn 1bn, Karen is unlikely to let it go. However, it has won in court at every turn.

The controversy has been low profile, perhaps because the plot has developed so slowly. But it is expected that the trade partnership between the UK and India will expand next month. Karen may have little to do with this great politics, but her status is certainly not irrelevant. This issue should still not go awry.


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